Invasive elodea threatens remote ecosystem services in Alaska: a spatially-explicit bioeconomic risk analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017This dissertation links human and ecological systems research to analyze resource management decisions for elodea, Alaska's first submerged aquatic invasive plant. The plant likely made it to Alaska through the aquarium trade. It was first discovered in urban parts of the state but is being introduced to remote water bodies by floatplanes and other pathways. Once introduced, elodea changes freshwater systems in ways that can threaten salmon and make floatplane destinations inaccessible. The analysis integrates multiple social and ecological data to estimate the potential future economic loss associated with its introduction to salmon fisheries and floatplane pilots. For estimating the effects on commercial sockeye fisheries, multiple methods of expert elicitation are used to quantify and validate expert opinion about elodea's ecological effects on salmon. These effects are believed to most likely be negative, but can in some instances be positive. Combined with market-based economic valuation, the approach accounts for the full range of potential ecological and economic effects. For analyzing the lost trip values to floatplane pilots, the analysis uses contingent valuation to estimate recreation demand for landing spots. A spatially-explicit model consisting of seven regions simulates elodea's spread across Alaska and its erratic population dynamics. This simulation model accounts for the change in region-specific colonization rates as elodea populations are eradicated. The most probable economic loss to commercial fisheries and recreational floatplane pilots is $97 million per year, with a 5$456 million annually. The analysis describes how loss varies among stakeholders and regions, with more than half of statewide loss accruing to commercial sockeye salmon fisheries in Bristol Bay. Upfront management of all existing invasions is found to be the optimal management strategy for minimizing long-term loss. Even though the range of future economic loss is large, the certainty of long-term damage favors investments to eradicate current invasions and prevent new arrivals. The study serves as a step toward risk management aimed at protecting productive ecosystems of national and global significance.General introduction -- Chapter 1. Quantifying Expert Knowledge Using a Discrete Choice Model: Persistence of Salmonids in Habitat Invaded by Elodea -- Chapter 2. Aquatic Invasive Species Change Ecosystem Services from the World's Largest Sockeye Salmon Fisheries in Alaska -- Chapter 3. Aquatic Invasive Plants Alter Recreation Access for Alaska's Floatplane Pilots: an Application of Stated Geographic Preferences to Economic Valuation -- Chapter 4. Aquatic Invasive Species from Urban Source Lakes Threaten Remote Ecosystem Services in Alaska: Linking Floatplane Pathway Dynamics with Bioeconomic Risk Analysis -- General Conclusion -- References -- Appendix

Social Indicators for Arctic Mining

This paper reviews and assesses the state of the data to describe and monitor mining trends in the pan-Arctic. It constructs a mining index and discusses its value as a social impact indicator and discusses drivers of change in Arctic mining. The widely available measures of mineral production and value are poor proxies for economic effects on Arctic communities. Trends in mining activity can be characterized as stasis or decline in mature regions of the Arctic, with strong growth in the frontier regions. World prices and the availability of large, undiscovered and untapped resources with favorable access and low political risk are the biggest drivers for Arctic mining, while climate change is a minor and locally variable factor. Historical data on mineral production and value is unavailable in electronic format for much of the Arctic, specifically Scandinavia and Russia; completing the historical record back to 1980 will require work with paper archives. The most critically needed improvement in data collection and reporting is to develop comparable measures of employment: the eight Arctic countries each use different definitions of employment, and different methodologies to collect the data. Furthermore, many countries do not report employment by county and industry, so the Arctic share of mining employment cannot be identified. More work needs to be done to develop indicator measures for ecosystem service flows. More work also needs to be done developing conceptual models of effects of mining activities on fate control, cultural continuity and ties to nature for local Arctic communities

Aquatic Invasive Species Change Ecosystem Services from the World�s Largest Wild Sockeye Salmon Fisheries in Alaska

This study combines a multi-method approach to structured expert judgment with market valuation to forecast fisheries damages from introduced invasive species. The method is applied to a case study of Alaska�s first submersed aquatic invasive plant, Elodea spp., threatening Alaska�s salmon fisheries. Assuming that Elodea spp. remains unmanaged, estimated mean damages to commercial sockeye fisheries aggregated across Alaska amount to a potential $159 million annually with a 5$577 million annually ($2015 USD). The associated mean loss of natural capital amounts to$5.1 billion cumulatively over the next 100 years reaching $400 million after 10 years. Results from the expert elicitation indicate that there is a 35% chance of positive net benefits associated with the believed positive effects of Elodea spp. on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Despite the potential for positive net gains, the magnitude of the most probable damage estimate may justify substantial investment in keeping productive freshwater systems free of aquatic invasive species. The damage estimate for Alaska is significantly larger than similar estimates in the Great Lakes where ecosystems are already impaired by multiple aquatic invasive species, underscoring the value of keeping functioning ecosystems with global market value productive. This study is the first to estimate ecosystem service loss associated with introduction of an aquatic invasive species to freshwater habitat that supports the world�s most valuable wild sockeye salmon fisheries. Important policy implications related to natural resource management and efficient allocation of scarce resources are discusse

Invasive Species Management Programs in Alaska: A Survey of Statewide Expenditures, 2007 - 11

Published in Arctic, Vol 67, No 1 (March 2014

Aquatic Invasive Species Change Ecosystem Services from the World\u27s Largest Wild Sockeye Salmon Fisheries in Alaska

This study combines a multi-method approach to structured expert judgment with market valuation to forecast fisheries damages from introduced invasive species. The method is applied to a case study of Alaska’s first submersed aquatic invasive plant, Elodea spp., threatening Alaska’s salmon fisheries. Assuming that Elodea spp. remains unmanaged, estimated mean damages to commercial sockeye fisheries aggregated across Alaska amount to a potential $159 million annually with a 5$577 million annually ($2015 USD). The associated mean loss of natural capital amounts to$5.1 billion cumulatively over the next 100 years reaching $400 million after 10 years. Results from the expert elicitation indicate that there is a 35% chance of positive net benefits associated with the believed positive effects of Elodea spp. on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Despite the potential for positive net gains, the magnitude of the most probable damage estimate may justify substantial investment in keeping productive freshwater systems free of aquatic invasive species. The damage estimate for Alaska is significantly larger than similar estimates in the Great Lakes where ecosystems are already impaired by multiple aquatic invasive species, underscoring the value of keeping functioning ecosystems with global market value productive. This study is the first to estimate ecosystem service loss associated with introduction of an aquatic invasive species to freshwater habitat that supports the world’s most valuable wild sockeye salmon fisheries. Important policy implications related to natural resource management and efficient allocation of scarce resources are discusse

Ocean Acidification and Alaska

This presentation outlines research questions and existing information regarding key commercial fisheries and the potential impact of ocean acidification in Alaska. Presented to the Alaska Board of Fisheries in October 2019

Sustainable Economic Development for the Prince William Sound Region

The Prince William Sound area possesses an array of the attractions that draw people to visit and live in Alaska: dramatic peaks and glaciers, an intricate coastline, old growth rainforest, alpine meadows, abundant wildlife, and distinct small towns and villages. It offers a valuable combination of accessibility and wilderness solitude. The area has many of the resources and products needed to position itself as a premier destination for the adventure, cultural, educational and ecotourism market segments. A key challenge for the region is to capture these economic opportunities while maintaining control over residents’ economic future and quality of life. The goals of this project are to: • Identify opportunities and challenges to diversify and grow the Prince William Sound economy while improving the quality of life for Prince William Sound residents and maintaining the exceptional natural environment. • Help foster and strengthen partnerships for economic development. • Consider new pathways to a prosperous economic future.National Wildlife Federation (Alaska Office

Alaska Isolated Wind-Diesel Systems Performance and Economic Analysis

Most remote rural communities in Alaska use diesel to generate electricity, but the high price of diesel is causing an increasing number to add a local power source that’s also renewable—wind. Our analysis is preliminary; most existing systems are new. Adding wind to diesel systems makes economic sense to customers if wind energy costs less than the equivalent energy cost of diesel. Our review of project histories did reveal some potential ways of improving the economics and performance of rural wind-diesel systems. Those include geographically and technologically aggregating projects to take advantage of economies of scale; employing skilled project developers who use technological innovations to increase wind-energy generation; having clear power-purchase agreements; having skilled and motivated local operators; establishing remote monitoring to alert project managers about problems and record maintenance and performance data; and hiring people with expertise in Alaska’s harsh climate.Alaska Energy Authority Denali Commissio

ISER Working Paper 2011.1

This report and supporting spreadsheet outline Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2011-2030 for natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer, diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank, diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community, home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla. The report provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that are used, while a companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projections.Alaska Energy Authorit

Local Fishing Communities and Nature Based Tourism in Baja, México: An Inter-Sectoral Valuation of Environmental Inputs

Nature-based tourism is often advocated as a desirable conservation strategy for smallscale fishing communities as it gives local people motivation to protect wildlife and ecosystems that attract visitors, while benefiting the community. However, valuation of environmental inputs in nature-based tourism, for instance charismatic species or scenic amenities, needs to be done correctly. Often, there are inter-sectoral costs and benefits involved that are not counted, so that determining the value of the environmental inputs to local communities may be more complex than simpler calculations might indicate. We model whales as an input to the production of wildlife viewing trips, but recognize that this occurs within a community dependent on a seasonal fishery. Standard theory suggests that industry will switch from fishing to whale watching every year when whale watching becomes marginally more profitable than fishing. We develop a simple theoretical model that allows us to analyze the interaction between the extractive and the non-extractive activities. As a case study, we use whale watching in the small coastal communities of the Bahía Magdalena lagoon complex in Baja, México.Alberto Ansuategi thanks financial support from the Ministerio de Economa y Competitividad (ECO-2015-68023) and the Eusko Jaurlaritza (IT-799-13 and MV-2017-1-0008)